The Rise and Fall of Syria’s President Assad, From Doctor to Dictator |Part-1
Hello and How are you! This is Obaid Khokhar.
Today we will review (The Rise and Fall of Syria’s President Assad, From Doctor to Dictator) Part-1
The historic Aleppo in Syria has been a point of human history
which any eminent historian or narrator has not ignored.
The Bible contains that Abraham, the leader of Bani Israel used to graze sheep on its slopes.
He milked the sheep and hence the name of the city came from the local word for it 'Helb' (Aleppo).
Alexander the Great established settlements here 2300 hundred years ago.
1100 years ago, this place was mentioned in Tabari's history.
Ibn Battuta declared this city as the best city in Syria six centuries ago.
600 years ago, the famous historian Ibn Khaldun also called it the centre of wealth and culture.
Five centuries ago, Shakespeare made this city the set of his plays.
In 'The Nightingale' and the 'Arabian Nights' write about the nightly caravans that would stop outside this city
and from this city, the caravans passing through various places, would eventually end up in the Baluchistan region of Pakistan.
Regrettably, the city that was the spirit of empires and legends,
no longer had peace over the ages.
The bloodbath is being done there to make humanity ashamed.
The last battle was fought from 2012 to 2016 in a way that 31000 people were killed in 4 years, 5 months and 3 days.
Most of them were killed by their countrymen.
This historic city was so badly destroyed in the war that it came to be called the Stalingrad of Syria.
When the long civil war ended in December 2016, Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad had emerged victorious.
He defeated the opposing forces with the help of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah forces and pushed them towards the neighbouring city of Idlib.
There was no formal attempt to rebuild the city, but life took its course
and, as the city began to spiral and returned to its glory over the next eight years.
But on the night of November 27, the historic city of Aleppo was once again resounded by two suicide bombings.
The explosions were made by the rebel group Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham, which depended on the military aid of neighbouring Turkey and Ukraine.
The attacks were carried out at night, shortly before dawn, at the first checkpoints on the road from Idlib to Aleppo, which had become quite neglected after eight years of relative peace.
The blasts opened the only major road to Aleppo to the rebels.
The rebel group Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham, once linked to al-Qaida and Daesh, with its ally Turkey and American-backed fighters had come to Aleppo fully prepared. They had full night vision equipment and were trained in Ukraine by a unit that conducted night operations against Russian forces and had mastered drone strikes in modern warfare.
These were the trained people of NATO and America who then trained these people. Although there is no report of the use of drones in this war,
but drones must have been used for espionage,
as this weapon has become more important than the Kalashnikov in modern guerilla warfare.
So we think that drones have been used here, maybe the details will come sometime.
So, the first purpose of this attack on November 27, was to capture the main M5 highway in Syria.
Because it is the main road connecting the major cities of Syria to Damascus, the power centre.
From November 27th to November 30th, rebel forces easily captured this road up to Hama.
By November 30, these forces had captured nearly 200 towns and villages along this road.
On the same day, these forces were also present in Aleppo, and they also released their pictures.
That is, the city fell into the hands of official rebels, the Turkish-American-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Some other small fighter groups are also with this organisation.
Since Aleppo Citadel is a historically important site and the control centre of Aleppo, the rebels have also released videos and photos from outside this citadel.
Even in the three-day attack, the rebels met little resistance.
Because none of the Syrian forces were prepared to meet this sudden attack.
Bashar al-Assad's Syrian forces, known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), and some soldiers from Russian reserve forces were there to defend Aleppo.
However, about 40 of them were killed in the first surprise attack.
The rest escaped from the M5 highway and headed the Hama City.
On November 29, Russian jets and the Syrian Arab Army counterattacked and caused dozens of casualties, but were unable to take back control of the M5 highway from the rebels.
Until December 2, both sides have a vague sort of stalemate wherein the area from the city of Hama upwards to Aleppo is under the control of rebels, supported by the United States, Turkey, Ukraine and Saudi Arabia.
While below Hama, Russian and Syrian forces have stopped their advance for now.
But one of the most important points in all this fighting, which was similar to the same M5 highway, was the international airport of Aleppo.
If this road goes out of the hands of Syrian Bashar al-Assad forces, then a lot has been lost, but if the airport is also lost, then everything has been lost.
Although the airport is in less usable condition due to Israeli attacks, it can still be used for military purposes.
This is why, as Syrian forces cowardly ran before the Turkish-backed rebels, another force from the north, hostile to both Turkey and al-Qaeda, took over. These forces are the "Syrian Democratic Forces" SDF.
But a few hours later, when the supply lines of this force were cut off by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, Kurdish forces also relinquished control of the airport. By the way, these Kurdish forces are enemies of Turkey but they are not friends of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces either. Yes, don't even fight with Bashar al-Assad.
Then you will be more surprised to hear that these Kurdish forces
are enemies of the American and Turkish-backed rebel forces,
but at the same time, they also have American support and are getting help from it.
What is this puzzle? What is this being cooked?
Curious fellows, stay here a moment.
Before proceeding further, let's simplify this civil war mess.
Take a look at this map.
This is a map of the country of Syria, Syria,...
...before the so-called Arab Spring of 2011...
...within this whole colourful geography.
Since about 2019, the situation has been...
that you see on the map,..
that is, more than 65 per cent of the country, which is shown in red,...
...has been controlled by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.
Bashar al-Assad's regime had and still has heavy military support from Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah forces.
In this conflict, the army of the Bashar al-Assad regime is called the Syrian Arab Army.
This army is trained by Iranian and Russian forces and these two countries also provide it with financial support.
So Syrian Civil War's first core player is quite simple.
Now you can see this second-largest part of the Syrian map, which is shown in yellow.
It forms about 25% of the total historical area of the North-eastern part of Syria.
This place borders Turkey and Iraq and has the largest Muslim population of Kurds.
Due to its geography and the historical background of the Kurds,...
...the region was of great strategic importance.
Due to the civil war, this importance has increased even more.
Since the civil war, this area has been ruled by a Kurdish-led force...
...known internationally as the "Syrian Democratic Forces" or Kurdish forces.
It is commonly referred to as the Kurdish Controlled Area.
After the Syrian Arab Army fled, this force also briefly...
...took control of Aleppo airport.
So, friends, there is a very interesting situation in this region.
Because of the majority Kurdish population in the North, is a big problem for neighbouring Turkey.
You know that historically Turkey has faced Kurdish insurgency and terrorist attacks.
The Turkish government has also declared the Kurdistan Workers' Party "PKK" as a terrorist group.
The United States, the European Union and some other countries have also designated it as a terrorist.
So after the Arab Spring of 2011,...
...as the Syrian civil war began to spread...
..., Kurdish fighters took control of their majority-populated areas in the north.
Because the writ of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria had ended in these areas.
If they didn't take over, ISIS and other similar active groups were also attacking.
So with the help of America and its allies, the Kurdish forces captured the North Eastern Region.
This is how the region was saved from Daesh and Al-Qaeda-linked organisations such as Tahrir al-Sham.
However, the civil war and the Kurdish control caused a big problem for Turkey.
That is, more than two million war-affected Syrians...
...crossed the border and entered Turkey.
A large number of them are still living in Tents in Turkey.
The Turkish economy was already not in very good condition.
So It was further burdened by such a large influx of refugees.
Ironically, the Kurdish community, which Turkey considered a threat to its security...
..and declared it as a terrorist,...
...had established a semi-autonomous powerful government on a large region of its border.
Because it forms 65 per cent of the total border between Syria and Turkey...
...which is now under the control of the Kurdish forces.
So Turkey launched "Operation Peace Spring" in 2019...
...and occupied the areas of Syria that bordered it.
According to Turkey, the operation had two main objectives.
Firstly, to establish a buffer zone of 30 kilometres between Turkish and Kurdish forces...
...which should be protected by Turkey or Turkish-backed forces.
Then, these two million Syrian refugees in Turkey should be resettled in this area...
...to reduce the burden on the Turkish economy.
The United States and Europe were also in support of Turkey in this plan...
...because a large number of Syrian refugees from Turkey and Greece were entering Europe which worried them also.
Therefore, European interest also needed the establishment of a buffer zone inside Syria...
...where Syrian refugees are sent back, resettled and the border is strictly controlled.
So, it happened in this Turkish operation Peace Spring...
...that Turkey quickly managed to capture some border areas of Syria.
Within days it took over.
The part you see in light blue on the map is the same area...
...that Turkey has been occupying to date.
That is, with its pro-Syrian National Army.
Alarmed by the situation when Turkey began these occupations,...
...Syria's Bashar al-Assad government and Kurdish forces reached an informal agreement.
This tactical agreement was signed in October 2019 with the help of Russian President Putin.
This agreement was not a formal peace agreement.
It aimed to stop the increasing aggression of Turkey.
That is, the Kurdish forces and the Syrian forces become weak in their mutual fight...
...not to let Turkey get the opportunity to occupy the Syrian territories.
Apart from this, there were many other details of the tactical agreement, but in short,...
...the two forces, keeping their conflict in front,...
...found a way to avoid the Turkish occupation through this agreement.
Since then, the yellow area has been under the control of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces.
It has the support of Saudi Arabia, America and European countries.
These countries are trying to liberate this region or...
it is accepted as an independent region by the Syrian Bashar al-Assad regime.
Meaning thereby that it remains a part of Syria, but independent in most of its affairs.
The Syrian president, who is backed by Russia and Iran,...
...is unwilling to decentralise Syria in any case.
He is not ready to see Syria torn into pieces.
He believes this will pave the way for the breakup of Syria...
...and this autonomous region will eventually emerge as an independent country.
Although Turkey is an enemy of the Bashar al-Assad regime, it is still...
...strongly against the independence of the Kurdish region.
You know, Turks consider Kurdish power as a threat to the peace of their country.
Interestingly, Iran, which is not a friend of the Kurds,...
...it too for the sake of controlling Turkish aggression in this region, is for the time being,...
..forced to support, help or accept the Kurdish forces.
This is the most interesting part of the world's most complex civil war.
So, since October 2019, without any formal agreement, in this region...
...is a stand-still situation in this North Region, which you see in yellow colour.
Which is accepted by Bashar al-Assad, Kurds and Iran.
Then see this blue part, which you earlier saw...
...is a short Turkish-Syrian border area which...
...has been occupied by rebels opposed to the Syrian president since 2019 with the help of Turkish forces.
The rebel forces, which have been taking control of Aleppo and other areas since November 27,...
...are a key supply line and training ground for them.
From here begins another saga and area of fragmented sovereignty.
This is the light green area also includes the big city of Idlib.
The area on the Turkish border is controlled by "Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham", a modern version of former al-Qaeda and ISIS.
The same organisation which is leading the rebel attacks on Aleppo and Hama.
By giving a fake modern colour to Tahrir al-Sham...
...America, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel and European powers are also supporting it.
Although, from its leaders to the fighters, most of them are the same people...
...who are fighting the Bashar al-Assad regime to establish a strict religious government in Syria.
Their slogan is that they are fighting to liberate Syria from the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad.
They are Syrian Freedom Fighters.
But, their ideas are pan-Islamism and politically, they appear close to ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
The soldiers of Tahrir al-Sham are formable fighters.
But until two years ago, when Iranian militias and Hezbollah forces were not engaged in a war with Israel,...
...they defeated them together with the Syrian Arab Army and the Russians.
This was the defeat that took place in 2016,...
...which international media called the mother of all battles.
It was called the Stalingrad of the Syrian Civil War,
...in which Shiite militias and Bashar al-Assad's forces won.
Russian Sukhoi jets played a vital role in it...
...and carried out fierce attacks to cut the supply lines of the rebels.
Thousands of Syrian civilians were killed in them too,...
...but Turkey and these forces went on the back foot.
But from February 2022, the situation changed rapidly.
At first, Russian forces were distracted,...
...as they now needed more airpower and resources on the Ukrainian front.
Then in October 2023, Hezbollah forces,...
...and Iranian militias were engaged in the Israeli war on Gaza.
When the Israeli attacks on Lebanon started...
..., thousands of Hezbollah fighters from Syria came to Lebanon to fight Israel.
Syrian Bashar al-Assad forces, i.e. the Syrian Arab Army,...
...were already weakened by the loss of lakhs of its men.
Thus, Turkey once again had the opportunity to avenge the 2016 defeat in Aleppo...
...and advance its pro-army forces and secure its interests.
Coincidentally, the same was the interest of the United States, Israel and the European Union...
...to divert the attention of Iranian fighting assets from Lebanon and Gaza...
...back to Syria and support the war-weary Israeli forces.
That is, the interests of Turkey, the Western World and Israel had combined on different grounds.
But not only that? Perhaps you are not mindful of another force.
And this is the Ukrainian forces.
Surprisedly, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces, which had been leading the attack since November 27,...
...have been trained by Ukrainian intelligence.
Ukraine itself has given its proof.
According to Ukraine's oldest English newspaper "The Kiev Post",...
...the fighters of Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham have been trained in night fighting and drone warfare.
The reason is clear and simple.
At present the biggest enemy of the Russian forces is the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian army believes in targeting Russian forces wherever they are around the world...
and the Russian enemies should be empowered.
Now that the Russian Army is a supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,...
...and is also present in Syria,...
...where the Russian military also has bases...
...therefore, Ukraine has sided with its enemies with American backing.
In explicit terms, the US and the Western world...
...have started attacking Russian forces outside the Ukrainian front.
One of the most important factors behind the success of this fresh attack...
...was their expertise in night warfare.
For which the Syrian Arab Army was not ready at all.
The death toll on each side is roughly around 200 at present.
While a huge population of Aleppo city is fleeing to the areas controlled by Bashar al-Assad.
The number of refugee camps has grown...
...while it is just the beginning of the war.
Russian jets are bombing the rebels for control of the M5 highway.
But you know bombing alone is not enough to take back control of this highway.
Regular control over the hundreds of towns and villages around a 450 km long highway is also essential for it.
For it, Syrian, Hezbollah and Russian fighters need to go on the ground also.
To save the Bashar al-Assad regime and its Syrian Arab Army,
is imperative for Iran and Russia.
So important that Iran can temporarily forget the border between Lebanon and Gaza.
Because this is its major supply line.
If the major area of Syria went out of its influence, Iran will become a very weak player on the chessboard of the Middle East.
That's why you see that since the Turkish-backed groups, attacked the Syrian city of Aleppo,
Israel has also continued to attack the Golan Heights, in the south of Syria, to engage the Syrian forces and the Iranian assets everywhere.
In this case, Turkey and Israel are on the same mission.
Although Turkey and the United States have made a diplomatic statement, that they are not playing any role in this part of the Syrian Civil War,...
..but,...' come on'...
...' This is a game, my friends.'
This is how it is played,...
and lies are also a weapon therein...
...in modern parlance which is called narrative or propaganda.
Unfortunately, friends another font of a long war has opened.
After Sudan, Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Myanmar and Yemen,...
...now Syria is the eighth front which has become a victim of endless human ambitions and mistrust...
...and the lust of arms dealers.
… bey for now we will review upcoming updates in 2nd part, of
The Rise and Fall of Syria’s President Assad, From Doctor to Dictator.
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